Michigan's likely to become cloudier, wetter and warmer, and
complaints aren't likely to come from down on the farm.
Chances are that future generations, like those past and present, will
talk about the weather.
Researchers say some future Michigan residents may have more clouds,
rain and heat to serve as targets of complaints.
Michigan State University Extension service agricultural meteorologist
Jeffrey Andresen cites studies predicting the state's precipitation will
increase 25 percent by the year 2100, and temperatures could rise 4 to 9
degrees on average.
Andresen and a team of MSU scientists are conducting research to assess
climate change during the past several centuries and to project continued
change in the next 100 years.
"The research we have conducted gives us some of the best guesses
as to what the future holds," Andresen said.
Andresen said he also predicts an increase in the number of days with
precipitation and an increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere,
which could lead to higher yields in crops like soybeans and alfalfa.
"Carbon dioxide levels have gone from 280 to 380 parts per million
in the past 50 years and are likely to approach 700 (ppm) by 2100,"
Andresen said.
Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere means higher enrichment and
fer tilization levels for crops.
Andresen said research conducted in the Midwest and Canada indicates
yield increases of about 10 percent for alfalfa and as much as 60 percent
for soybeans.
"We could see similar yield increases across the board,"
Andresen said.
If so, complaints about climate change won't come from farmers,
Andresen said.
The most significant climate trend in the Great Lakes region during the
last 50 to 60 years, is that it has become increasingly wetter."
Andresen said Michigan's normal precipitation levels are 28 to 34 inches
annually, and those will increase to a level somewhere between 35 and 42.5
inches by the year 2100.
"What's even more significant is that the number of days with
precipitation has increased anywhere from 10 to 30 percent since
1940," he said. "This has great implications in agriculture,
because the amount of precipitation doesn't matter as much as the
timing."
Andresen's research doesn't take into account how weather and
atmosphere will affect insect populations, disease development in crops
and weed growth, saying:
"We may see changes in these areas that offset our predictions for
increased yields based on weather."
Temperatures have risen 1 degree globally since 1850, with the warmest
years occurring in the past decade, he said.
Cloud cover will affect how much temperatures will rise, Andresen said.
"We expect the majority of temperature increases to be the result
of nighttime warming due to increased cloudiness during the day,"
Andresen said. |