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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. imports of Mexican
sugar are forecast to grow rapidly over the next decade, pushing
U.S. stock levels to the sky-high level of nearly 5.2 million short
tons in 2011, the U.S. Agriculture Department said Friday at its
annual outlook conference.
In its yearly long-term forecast, USDA
projected sugar imports from Mexico to more than double in fiscal
2002 to 264,000 tons from an estimated 117,000 tons this fiscal
year, which ends Sept 30.
As U.S. tariffs on Mexican sugar continue to
fall under the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement,
imports from Mexico are pegged to hit 810,000 tons in fiscal 2004
and hold at approximately that level for several years.
Beginning in 2008, when tariffs are completely
phased out, imports are projected to grow again to 1.9 million tons
by 2011, USDA said.
John Love, sugar specialist for USDA's World
Agricultural Outlook Board, said the forecast assumes a continuation
of current policy and steady to rising U.S. production.
But USDA's forecast for end-of-the-year U.S.
sugar supplies in 2011 to equal approximately 44 percent of domestic
use is likely to increase pressure in Congress for changes in the
U.S. sugar price-support program.
U.S. growers also would like to renegotiate
sugar terms of the NAFTA to keep prices high for producers in both
countries.
For the fiscal 2002, USDA pegged U.S. sugar
production up slightly at 8.86 million tons.
Combined with U.S. import commitments under
NAFTA and the World Trade Organization, the increase is expected to
push fiscal 2002 ending stocks to 2.08 million tons, up from an
estimated 2.02 million tons this year, Love said.
About 793,000 tons of the ending stocks will be
in USDA inventories as a result of sugar processor loan forfeitures
last year, he said. |