BRISBANE, March 15 (Reuters) - Growing demand in China and
the Middle East would help tip the world's sugar oversupply
into balance and lead to a stabilising effect on the embattled
Australian industry within three years, Queensland Sugar Ltd
said on Thursday.
"I'm optimistic we will see demand increase and the
world more in balance, than we have seen in the late
1990s," chief executive Ian White said of the world's
oversupply of 40 million tonnes of sugar.
White was addressing the Queensland Farmers Federation
annual conference.
"There will be some stability in the market in the
next two to three years... we could get back to growth rates
approaching 1.5 to two percent a year."
"We do expect to see a recovery in sugar production
and that will be led by a recovery in prices. We are
forecasting some form of recovery, it will be a response to
world prices and our view is there will be more stable world
prices in the next few years and that will be the catalyst for
the recovery."
White said China was expected to take more than one million
tonnes of sugar a year while Middle East was a growing market
with demand expected to grow by an extra two million tonnes in
the next five years.
"The expectations are that China will come to the
market for reasonable amount of product and that will continue
on ... people are talking somewhere over one million tonnes,"
he said.
He did not predict when China would come to the market.
"There are opportunities for demand increases which
will suck up some of these production excesses. There are
signs of movement in the trade area and we do have to look at
the world not being in massive oversupply."
However White said further restructuring of the fragmented
Australian sugar industry was needed with an emphasis on
marketing, diversification and consolidation.
"In terms of lifting the game, there's a lot to be
done in terms of marketing," he said.
"We've got to de-commoditise raw sugar to take it out
of the cycles and then we've got to look at different
qualities of sugar and tailor them to different customers and
create brands specifically for customers."
Diversification into co-generation, organic sugar and
ethanol production would also boost mill revenues, while
consolidation of Queensland's 6,500 mostly family-owned farms
was inevitable, he said.
White also said the eventual ownership of milling assets
owned by CSR Ltd , representing 40 percent of Australia's
milling capacity, would be a key to the future direction of
the industry.
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