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Keith Collins says the 2002 farm bill some how must meet two needs -- providing income support for the cropping sector and staying within trade rules under the World Trade Organization agreements.

Collins was one of several speakers addressing the North American Agricultural Journalists annual meeting last week in Washington.

Collins says such bright ideas sometimes show up unexpectedly.

"Actually, if you think about it, the 1996 farm bill -- the fixed AMTA (Agricultural Market Transition Act) payments were not something people were actually talking about in 1995 -- or even early 1996, -- so that was a bright idea that came along at the last minute," Collins says.

Collins says the House's Agriculture Committee holding hearings and agreeing to complete its version of commodity titles by July 11 is a "fast-track" process that will shape what comes out.

The Senate and administration have not yet weighed in. Realigning all loan rates to soybeans would add $2.7 billion to annual spending, Collins says. This is also in a category that could put the U.S. over a $19 billion spending limit in the "amber" category under WTO rules that attempt to reduce production distortion.

One option would be to lower soybean loan rates some, which are not lowered, which might trigger others.

"Clearly, if they take this option of trying to lower the soybean loan rate they're going to have to make up for it, I would assume, with some sort of direct payment program," Collins says.

One of the common themes in this round of farm bill ideas is the countercyclical goal of providing more assistance to farmers when more is needed.

"I think if these countercyclical programs are paid based on historical production, historical acreage and yields, and if they are triggered by some concept other than the current market price -- maybe it's revenue -- and it's not regional, such as what the Farm Bureau proposes -- and if it's a bunch of commodities together, then it's more likely it will be 'green,'" Collins says. "The more aggregate, the more decoupled it is from the production decision, the more likely the government might be able to notify the WTO that the program is 'green.' Otherwise, it's going to move toward amber then if you do that you've got this

$19 billion cap -- that's before you lower it even further in another WTO round."

Rep. Charles Stenholm, D-Texas, told the NAAJ that it is a fact that the Republican administration will take the lead.

Farm program spending hit a record high of $32 billion for fiscal year 2000 -- eclipsing the $26 billion in 1986, Collins noted. In 1996, USDA economists had projected much lower spending.

The Senate Budget Committee, which includes Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., has taken an unusual tack of adding money to the Congressional Budget Office baseline spending levels, rather than subtracting from it as in the past three previous farm bills.

"It looks like if the House will do what it's supposed to do, that will happen in the House as well," Collins says.

Conservation program spending will get a lot of discussion, but there is not much money in them, compared with price support programs. The Conservation Reserve Program has about $1.5 billion, and about $170 million in the Environmental Quality Incentive Program, with smaller amounts in other conservation programs.

Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, has introduced a Conservation Security Act as an "exciting, new" farm program payment mechanism, designed to replace other farm program payments.

"It's not clear to me the WTO implications of some of these programs," Collins says.

To be nondistorting for production, the programs would either involve cost-sharing by the producer, or must pay for income foregone by participating in the program. That's what the CRP and EQIP programs do, but they don't have a goal of income "enhancement," Collins says.He says increasing conservation funding for agriculture has a political pitfall of shifting money away from farmers who are receiving it now.

So far, Harkin's plan leaves to the secretary of agriculture questions on how farmers would be paid -- either on a practice or some conservation plan, Collins says. It also leaves to the imagination whether payments based on a practice, a farm or an acreage.

In the near term, Collins says there is little doubt that Congress will pass substantial economic assistance to farmers this year -- probably before September.

"And there'll be a fairly sizable increase in spending above the budget baseline for 2002 and beyond," Collins says.

Whether supply control returns as a theme in this farm bill is doubtful, but the concept "seems to live" in the sugar, cranberry and potato areas, Collins says.