WASHINGTON, July 22 Supporters of
ethanol, a fuel made from corn, are gaining in their push to
make it a major part of the nation's energy policy, despite
persistent doubts about its economic and environmental
benefits.
The Senate's new Democratic leaders and the Bush
administration are promoting a growing number of measures to
bolster ethanol demand significantly, including a nationwide
mandate to blend ethanol with gasoline. Supporters say that
using ethanol, a renewable fuel, helps struggling farmers,
combats greenhouse gas emissions and reduces the nation's
reliance on imported oil.
Just last month, the Bush administration, heavily lobbied
by lawmakers, governors and agricultural trade groups,
required California to use ethanol as a fuel additive to
comply with the Clear Air Act. The order is expected to
increase the nation's ethanol production by about 25 percent
by 2003.
Administration officials say their decision was a matter of
air quality and current law, not politics, explaining that
ethanol allows gasoline to burn more cleanly. New York may
also have to rely on ethanol as an additive to its gasoline.
Hoping to build on Mr. Bush's decision, farm state
lawmakers, including Senator Tom Daschle, Democrat of South
Dakota, who is the new Senate majority leader, have drafted
several bills, among them one that would create up to 10 times
as much ethanol demand over the next 15 years as there is now.
The backing of a powerful group of senators, which also
includes Tom Harkin, the Iowa Democrat who heads the
Agriculture Committee, gives such measures their best chance
in years. The legislation also has the advantage of coming up
while Congress is focusing on energy policy and a major new
farm bill.
But ethanol, which has been heavily subsidized for years,
also has its detractors. The ethanol program, as some experts
describe it, essentially takes money that would have gone to
the Federal Highway Trust Fund, through gasoline taxes, and
shifts it to American agriculture.
"It is a program to help farmers at the expense of
another sector of the economy," Keith Collins, the chief
economist at the Department of Agriculture, said.
The demand for ethanol raises corn prices, according to
many studies, and backers of the subsidies say that farmers
benefit substantially. The National Corn Growers Association
estimates that ethanol production raises the price of corn by
about 30 cents a bushel. The need for other agricultural
subsidies, the association says, is therefore reduced.
But there is mounting evidence questioning the
environmental benefits of using ethanol and the advantages to
farmers. Critics say that most of the benefits go to large,
corporate ethanol distillers.
In some cases, ethanol programs have backfired. One of the
smaller programs, meant to raise fuel efficiency by
encouraging automakers to produce cars capable of using
ethanol, has relied on incentives that allow them to sell more
gas-guzzlers. A federal panel, in a draft report, has
recommended that the program be eliminated.
Some studies suggest that ethanol, a form of alcohol,
offers no significant environmental benefits. In 1999, the
National Academy of Sciences reported that when ethanol is
blended with gasoline, it does not significantly reduce
pollution and may even increase the pollutants that cause
smog.
Still, many small farmers are convinced that soaring demand
for ethanol will help lift depressed corn prices. Lawmakers
from farm states say the tax incentives that are encouraging
the boom in ethanol production, a figure that approaches $1
billion a year, could help prop up a flagging farm economy.
"We have an obligation to help agriculture get on its
feet," said Senator Ben Nelson, Democrat of Nebraska,
which is a major producer of corn and ethanol. "There
have always been enough tax benefits to go around for
virtually everybody. That's the way the system works to
promote the economy."
In the wake of the California decision, farmers and big
agricultural companies are scrambling to build new ethanol
plants in the Midwest and Plains states.
But, according to many economists and agricultural experts,
the bulk of the profits generated from ethanol go to
agriculture processors like the Archer Daniels Midland Company
(news/quote),
which is turning greater volumes of low-priced corn into a
high-priced fuel.
A.D.M., Cargill Inc. and other processors benefit from
federal tax incentives, worth 53 cents for each gallon of
ethanol, that encourage gasoline refiners to create a blend
containing about 10 percent ethanol. Because of that subsidy,
which has cost about $10 billion since the program began in
1979, ethanol consumption is expected to approach two billion
gallons this year.
A.D.M., the nation's largest producer of ethanol, with
about 50 percent of the market, has seen its earnings from
ethanol surge over the last year as gasoline and ethanol
prices have jumped. Over the last two decades, ethanol has
yielded the company profits of about $1 billion, according to
Prudential Securities.
If prices remain stable, Wall Street analysts say, the
company could earn $200 million on about $1 billion in ethanol
sales in the fiscal year that began last month. A.D.M. is a
major campaign contributor to both parties.
Larry H. Cunningham, an A.D.M. spokesman, said that
ethanol's advantages are broad. "There are several
parties that have benefited the corn farmer, the
processor, the refiner and the consumer," he said. Unlike
M.T.B.E., another additive to make fuel cleaner that is
formally known as methyl tertiary butyl ether, ethanol poses
no threat of water contamination, he added.
The benefits to small farmers are difficult to gauge.
Because corn prices are so depressed, farmers have gained the
most from the government support program that guarantees them
$1.89 a bushel. Only if corn prices went higher would added
demand from ethanol make a difference to them, but the price
of corn has not reached $1.89 since 1998.
As a result, some farmer cooperatives are building ethanol
plants in the hopes of reaping greater rewards by acting as
processors, not simply corn growers. "We want to move
further up the value chain to make more money," said
David Kolsrud, a corn farmer who invested in an ethanol plant
in Luverne, Minn. "This is a hedge against low corn
prices."
Critics say the government is creating a market that would
not otherwise exist. "The highest and best use of corn is
not to artificially make it into ethanol," said former
Representative Bill Archer, a Texas Republican and an ethanol
opponent.
But Senator Daschle says that for struggling farmers, every
penny from producing corn counts. "Producers get the
crumbs," he said. "But these crumbs are very
important."
Farmers' investments in ethanol plants, through their
cooperatives, could raise their returns and enhance ethanol's
political stature. "It would be politically very
difficult to remove the ethanol subsidy because there are a
lot of co-ops out there," said Wallace E. Tyner, an
agricultural economist at Purdue University. "Everybody
who's building a plant today is assuming the subsidy will go
on forever, or at least for 20 years."
In Washington, ethanol's clout only grows. In persuading
Mr. Bush to force California to use ethanol, the ethanol
industry countered the powerful oil lobby and California's
considerable political influence. California had asked to be
exempted from having to use ethanol after it banned M.T.B.E.
because it leaks from storage tanks and pollutes groundwater.
Administration officials said that politics played no role
in their decision. "To suggest that the administration
has the ability to waive off the Clean Air Act is not found in
the law," said Dan Bartlett, an aide to President Bush.
New York, which is also phasing out M.T.B.E., may wind up
having to use more ethanol as well in a few years. The state
is considering whether to apply for a waiver from the Clean
Air Act, as California did.
One of the most ambitious measures for raising ethanol
demand is sponsored by Senators Chuck Hagel, Republican of
Nebraska, and Tim Johnson, Democrat of South Dakota. The bill
would require a rising percentage of the nation's fuel to come
from renewable resources, which, its backers say, would
increase ethanol output as much as 10 times by 2016.
Chief among ethanol's backers are lawmakers who represent
farmers. In the Midwest, attacking ethanol is political
suicide. Many farmers live in states that swing between
parties. Iowa is also the home of the nation's earliest
presidential caucus.
Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa and until
recently chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, got to know
Mr. Bush during the last election season. In January 2000, he
and Mr. Bush took a five-day car trip across Iowa, and Mr.
Grassley said he discussed ethanol with Mr. Bush several
times.
This year, Mr. Grassley, who repeatedly met with Mr. Bush
about the tax-cut bill, said he veered off whenever he could
into ethanol and the California case.
On May 16, Mr. Bush called Mr. Grassley to thank him for
his pivotal work on the tax cut. "I want to tell you
something," Mr. Bush continued, as Mr. Grassley recalls.
"I don't know when we are going to announce it or how,
but I don't want you to worry about ethanol."
Democrats like Senator Nelson, a moderate whose support for
the tax cut Mr. Bush heavily courted, also made themselves
heard. Just a few days before the California decision. Mr.
Nelson was aboard Air Force One with Mr. Bush. "I made it
clear that this would be very helpful to agriculture,"
Mr. Nelson said. |