If you get a check or electronic bank deposit, spend it wisely. It could be your last one.

That's the reaction of some congressional staffers to today's "Midsession Review" from the White House Office of Management and Budget. OMB's latest projection for government spending and tax receipts virtually wipes out the surplus that was to be used for agricultural spending. It doesn't affect this year's emergency spending. That comes out of the current fiscal year and the checks are being cut. But it's likely to make the job of writing the next farm bill very difficult.

"This could very well bring things to a full stop," says a well-placed Senate staffer. "That entire $66 billion in additional money for the next farm bill is now completely up in the air." (The $66 billion would be spent between the federal fiscal years 2003 and 20011.)

That is the money that virtually all farm group lobbyists in Washington, from Farm Bureau to Farmers Union, spent months getting added to the "baseline" used by Congress as a guide to farm spending. The groups had sought some $12 billion a year in additional funding. Congress approved about $6.6 billion a year for the next 10 years.

Surplus estimate shrinks

The Office of Management and Budget still projects that the current federal budget surplus will be the second largest in history -- $158 billion. But that's $123 billion smaller than its estimate last April. That leaves only about $1 billion over the excess Social Security payments, which the Administration has pledged not to touch. OMB projects a useable surplus of only about $2 billion for all federal programs in fiscal year 2003, when the next farm bill would take effect. The smaller surplus is due in part to the weak economy.

The bottom line, says the Senate staffer, is that there would be no extra money for the "counter-cyclical" payments the House Agriculture Committee has approved, and there would be no extra money for the new Conservation Security Act payments that Senate Agriculture Committee chair Tom Harkin would like to add into the next farm bill. That assumes that the current law would continue, which would include the regular 2002 AMTA payments under current farm law and current conservation programs.

Next week the Congressional Budget Office will release its own budget and income projections, and many in Congress expect those to be even more pessimistic. The House will also vote soon on the farm bill passed by the House Ag Committee.

In theory, the House could ignore an agreement with the White House and OMB to not touch Medicare spending and go ahead and approve the additional farm bill spending. Only one thing is certain, writing the next farm bill just got a lot harder.