Its in serious trouble, said Sen. Kent Conrad, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. The North Dakota Democrat wanted Congress to pass a bill this year to replace programs that expire in 2002.

Rep. Larry Combest, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, said he still hopes to begin House debate next week on legislation approved by his panel in June. The Texas Republican acknowledged that the revised budget projections will make it more difficult to move the bill.

The House committees senior Democrat, Charles Stenholm of Texas, said the farm bill is dead for the year.

The legislation would spend $168 billion over the next 10 years, including $73.5 billion of the surplus that was expected in the congressional budget agreement reached in the spring.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected in August that Social Security surpluses would be drained by $9 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 and that lawmakers were within $2 billion of siphoning Social Security funds next year.

Over the next 10 years, the CBO is forecasting a $3.4 trillion surplus, including Social Security, down from $5.6 trillion in its May forecast.

Farm-state lawmakers worry that the smaller forecast will force agricultural programs to compete with other spending priorities of Congress and the White House, including education and defense, to avoid being seen as using Social Security funds.

The chairman of the House Budget Committee, Iowa Republican Jim Nussle, says there still should be plenty of money to go around.

The Senate is unlikely to move a bill of its own before next year, said Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar, senior Republican on the Senate Agriculture Committee.

It doesnt seem to me to be there, Lugar said of the $168 billion needed for the House bill. Im not sure it was ever going to be there.

To Lugar, the tighter budget could be a good thing if it lowers farm spending, which he believes has stimulated excess production and distorted markets. It may bring more of a sense of reason to what should be done, he said.

Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman would not discuss whether the House should delay or move forward with its bill.

Were still trying to get it done, said John Feehery, a spokesman for House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill. A lot of decisions havent been made yet. This is one of them.

The legislation has been criticized by a major farm group, the National Corn Growers Association, which thinks the spending favors other crops. Environmentalists say it puts too much money into subsidizing crop production and not enough into conservation programs.