| FARGO, N.D. -- Both the United States and world sugar economies are
predicted to improve over the next 10 years after the current oversupply
of sugar is reduced, according to a report from the Center for
Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies at North Dakota State University in
Fargo.
Won Koo, center director, says world demand for sugar is expected to
grow faster than world supply, resulting in gradually increasing prices.
Carribean sugar prices are predicted to increase from 8.51 cents per pound
in 2000 to 12.67 cents per pound in 2010. The U.S. wholesale price of
sugar is projected to increase from 22.5 cents per pound in 2000 to 26.6
cents perpound in 2010, if the United States maintains its sugar programs,
he says.
"The U.S. domestic wholesale price is expected to reach the lowest
level in 2001 and recover slowly for the 2000 to 2010 period," Koo
says.
Total world sugar trade is projected to increase by 4.6 percent between
2000 and 2010, from 23.8 million metric tons to
24.9 million metric tons.
Canada's sugar production is predicted to increase 15.6 percent for the
period, while Canadian imports are expected to increase 13.5 percent.
Mexico's production is expected to increase 23.7 percent, but exports are
projected to increase 44.5 percent for the period because of increased
exports to the United States under NAFTA.
Most exporting countries, such as Australia, South Africa and Cuba, are
projected to increase production and exports during the forecasting
period. Most importing countries, including Algeria, China, Japan and
Korea, are predicted to increase imports for the 2000 to 2010 period.
U.S. and world sugar markets for 2000 to 2010 were evaluated using the
Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model.
For a copy of the report, "2001 Outlook of the U.S. and World
Sugar Markets," contact Carol Jensen, department of agribusiness and
applied economics, Box 5636, Fargo, N.D. 58105, phone (701) 231-7441, fax
(701) 231-7400 or e-mail cjensen@ndsuext.nodak.edu. It also is available
on the Web at agecon.lib.umn.edu/ndsu.html. |