QUEENSLAND'S beleaguered sugarcane farmers faced an 18 per cent fall in
international prices, the nation's chief commodities forecaster warned
yesterday.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said the
world economic slowdown and oversupply from the world's biggest sugar
producer, Brazil, would force down prices. Cane farmers have suffered in
recent years from bad weather and an onset of the disease orange rust in
the local crop.
ABARE is also tipping falls in wool and cotton prices as the economic
slowdown eats into world demand.
But overall, the commodities forecaster said Australian farmers and
miners should enjoy another good year on the back of the low dollar.
Australia is set to reap $90.5 billion from its commodity exports
this financial year, with the farm sector enjoying the biggest boost.
Rural exports will jump to $30.9 billion, from $29.4 billion last
year, more than making up for falls in earnings from the minerals
sector.
Mining exports are expected to drop to $55.6 billion from $56.4
billion, while the energy sector will drop $900 million to $25.7
billion.
ABARE's executive director, Brian Fisher, said the fall in the dollar
was more than making up for declining demand caused by the global
economic slowdown.
"A relatively weak Australian exchange rate, especially against
the US dollar, is expected to largely offset the adverse effects on
earnings of lower commodity prices on world markets," he said.
The economic slowdown is expected to eat into the strong gains made
by the minerals and energy sector, although again the low dollar should
keep profits up.
Coal production is expected to climb 3 per cent, and higher world
prices should boost its export value 22.8 per cent to $13.2 billion.
Apart from coal, exports of gold, iron ore, lead and manganese are
expected to climb this financial year.
The value of crude oil exports, which skyrocketed last year on the
back of high prices, is expected to drop 30.3 per cent, while the value
of natural gas and LPG exports is also tipped to fall.
One of the biggest rural success stories is expected to be the dairy
sector, which should enjoy a 7 percent improvement in prices while total
exports will climb 20 per cent to $3.6 billion.